000			03299nam0a22002773i 4500
999			_c114973 _d114973
003			BJBSDDR
005			20230411090713.0
007			ta
008			050221b2015 nyu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a9780804136693
040			_cBJBSDDR _bspa
041			_aspa
050		4	_aHB 3730 _bE83s 2015
100	1		_aE Tetlock, Philip, _d1954-
245	1		_aSuperforecasting : _bthe art and science of prediction/ _cPhilip E Tetlock; Dan Gardner
260			_aNew York : _bCrown Publishers, _c2015
300			_a340 p.: _bill.; _c24 cm
505			_a An optimistic skeptic -- Illusions of knowledge -- Keeping score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual beta -- Superteams -- The leader's dilemma -- Are they really so super? -- What's next? -- Epilogue -- An invitation -- Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters.
520			_a "From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--Provided by publisher
650		4	_99774 _aPrevisión económica
650		4	_9761 _aEconomía
700	1		_aGardner, Dan, _914440
899			_fP/G
899			_fP/G
942			_2lcc _cBK