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007			cr cn|||||||||
008			070709s2007 dcu sb 001 0 eng d
035			_a(OCoLC)ocn213305667
040			_aCOO _cCOO
020			_z0815729901
020			_a9780815729907
035			_a(OCoLC)213305667
050	1	4	_aHV 551.3 _bB648 2007
082	0	0	_a363.34
245	0	0	_aBlindside : _bhow to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / _cFrancis Fukuyama, editor.
260			_aWashington, D.C. : _bBrookings Institution Press, _c2007.
300			_avi, 198 p. ; _c24 cm.
500			_a"An American Interest Book."
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index.
505	0		_aThe challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index.
520			_a"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
533			_aElectronic reproduction. _bPalo Alto, Calif. : _cebrary, _d2008. _nMode of Access: World Wide Web. _nSubscription required for access.
538			_aSystem Requirements: Ebrary Reader which is available for download.
650		0	_aEmergency management _zUnited States.
650		0	_aInternational relations.
700	1		_aFukuyama, Francis.
710	2		_aebrary, Inc.
856	4	0	_uhttp://encompass.library.cornell.edu/cgi-bin/checkIP.cgi?access=gateway%5Fstandard%26url=http://site.ebrary.com/lib/cornell/Doc?id=10193747 _zConnect to full text.
942			_2lcc _cbk
946			_amfcruz
994			_aC0 _bDRFGD
999			_c51040 _d51040