| 000 | 02667cam a2200349Mi 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 999 |
_c86732 _d86732 |
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| 003 | BJBSDDR | ||
| 005 | 20230410132730.0 | ||
| 007 | ta | ||
| 008 | 081125s2007 enka f 001 0 eng d | ||
| 020 | _a9780141034591 | ||
| 020 | _a0141034599 | ||
| 035 | _a(OCoLC)ocn456518353 | ||
| 035 | _a(OCoLC)456518353 | ||
| 040 |
_aSILIS _bslv _cSILIS |
||
| 041 | _aeng | ||
| 044 |
_axxk _cgbr |
||
| 049 | _aGRAL | ||
| 050 | 1 | 4 |
_aQ 375 _bT143b 2007 |
| 082 | 0 | 0 | _a003/.54 |
| 100 | 1 |
_aTaleb, Nassim Nicholas, _d1960- |
|
| 245 | 1 | 4 |
_aThe black swan : _bthe impact of the highly improbable / _cNassim Nicholas Taleb. |
| 260 |
_aLondon : _bPenguin Books, _c2007. |
||
| 300 |
_axviii, 366 p. : _bil. ; _c20 cm. |
||
| 505 | _aPrologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible. | ||
| 520 | _aExamines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random. | ||
| 650 | 0 |
_aUncertainty (Information theory) _xSocial aspects. |
|
| 650 | 0 | _aForecasting. | |
| 650 | 4 |
_aIncertidumbre (TeorÃa de la información) _917496 |
|
| 650 | 4 |
_aPredicciones sociales _93059 |
|
| 942 |
_2lcc _cBK |
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| 946 | _anc | ||