000 02667cam a2200349Mi 4500
999 _c86732
_d86732
003 BJBSDDR
005 20230410132730.0
007 ta
008 081125s2007 enka f 001 0 eng d
020 _a9780141034591
020 _a0141034599
035 _a(OCoLC)ocn456518353
035 _a(OCoLC)456518353
040 _aSILIS
_bslv
_cSILIS
041 _aeng
044 _axxk
_cgbr
049 _aGRAL
050 1 4 _aQ 375
_bT143b 2007
082 0 0 _a003/.54
100 1 _aTaleb, Nassim Nicholas,
_d1960-
245 1 4 _aThe black swan :
_bthe impact of the highly improbable /
_cNassim Nicholas Taleb.
260 _aLondon :
_bPenguin Books,
_c2007.
300 _axviii, 366 p. :
_bil. ;
_c20 cm.
505 _aPrologue -- Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans -- Postscript essay: on robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; Margaritas ante porcos ; Asperger and the ontological black swan ; (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; Fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; What to do with the fourth quadrant ; Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; Amor fati: how to become indestructible.
520 _aExamines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
650 0 _aUncertainty (Information theory)
_xSocial aspects.
650 0 _aForecasting.
650 4 _aIncertidumbre (Teoría de la información)
_917496
650 4 _aPredicciones sociales
_93059
942 _2lcc
_cBK
946 _anc